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_____________
Why Airports:USA
Forecasts Are
Superior To Outdated
FAA Forecasts
The Boyd
Group, Inc.
Advisors to the Aviation Industry
Since 1984
78 Beaver Brook Canyon Road
Evergreen, Colorado, 80439
303-674-2000
303-674-9995 Facsimile
aviation-info@aviationplanning.com
The Boyd Group Advantage
Clear Data. Independent Data.
Forecasts That Reflect The FutureSince publishing the first edition in 1992, Airports:USA has become the standard in reliable enplanement forecasts.
Covering a total of 146 individual airports that comprise over 95% of all US passenger traffic, this is the only comprehensive passenger and trend forecast published independently in the private sector.
The New Alternative To Outdated, Obsolete FAA Forecasts. The FAA approach assumes that traffic growth at airports can be modeled entirely by mathematical models, and by assuming that the past is a valid indicator of the future.
Tell that to Manchester. To Dayton. Or to Flint. The rapid shifts in traffic at these airports and others were entirely missed by the FAA's 1950's methodologies. (But Airports:USA subscribers knew of these events well in advance.)
But now there is a better source of airport forecasts. Airports:USA.
Airports:USA is a comprehensive forecast with data that can be relied upon by aviation planners who demand more than sloppy government numbers.
Airports:USA is available 24/7 on line, and is updated constantly throughout the year as events demand. When Southwest announced entry at SFO, our forecasts analyzed the event and forecasts were updated - within days. When jetBlue added Sarasota to its route map, our subscribers had a revised forecast for that airport. Whenever an event occurs of this nature, the forecast is updated by the experts at The Boyd Group.
Advantage: Forecasts For The 23 US Hubsite Airports
Airports:USA provides specific seven-year forecasts for 23 hubsite airports. These are the facilities where there are true connecting-hub operations. As will be noted below, the FAA use of the term "hub" is reflective of an airline industry that no longer exists...
High, Baseline, and Low forecast scenarios are provided, outlining key trends at the airport and at the hubbing carrier. Important emerging traffic patterns at each hubsite are identified.
These forecasts reflect real-world factors that FAA forecasts miss entirely. For example, a potential Southwest entry is reviewed in the projections for CLT. The DFW forecast includes the potential effects of changes in the Wright Amendment. When an event takes place that could materially shift traffic levels at a covered airport, Airports:USA is updated, and the subscribers have access to it right away on the website.
Advantage: Large Non-Hubsite Airport Forecasts
Airports such as Tampa, Sacramento, and LaGuardia are important components in the air transportation system. They are not sites of strong airline connecting hubs, but they do face different air service dynamics from hubsites or small non-hubsite airports.
Therefore, Airports:USA addresses 24 Large Non-Hubsite airports in a separate section. As with hubsites, the specific dynamics in play are reviewed, and any material changes in air service levels are immediately reflected in the subscribers-only section of the website.
Large non-hubsite airports included in the forecast:
A total of 98 smaller airports, sorted within eight regions of the nation, are included in the forecast.
Specific trends are discussed for each region. As with the rest of the Airports:USA forecast, any material changes are reflected in the subscribers' section of the website.
Airports:USA also includes historical enplanement data for these airports, from 1999. Subscribers can request earlier data.
Planners who want to know both the forecast data and the trends behind them, order Airports:USA. It provides the following:
- Total national enplanement forecasts for each year.
- Year-by-year forecasts for each of 145 airports.
- Regional summaries - trends in each region of the nation are discussed and summarized.
- Trend analyses and forecasts of the nation's major connecting hubsite airports. We note the trends and airline strategies at each hubsite - information that the FAA and other entities do not cover.
- In-depth analyses of key large, non-hubsite airports.
- National and regional trends that will affect air traffic. Issues such as fleet trends, aircraft orders, new entrants, airline alliances, and possible legislation.
- Summary tables - five year forecasts for each of the 145 airports covered.
Our track record is one that has provided our subscribers with information on future shifts before they happen.
- Airports:USA predicted the traffic declines when AA closed their hubs at RDU and BNA - well before they took place. While traditional forecasts continued to predict strong growth at these airports literally for years after the American Airlines hubbing operations ended, Airports:USA reviewed the trends in play at American, and accurately forecast changes in enplanements well in advance. FAA forecasts were still predicting rosy growth years after these trends began to manifest.
- Airports:USA predicted the strong growth at TUS in 1993-1994, well before FAA or other forecasts noted them. The reason is the proactive forecast methodology of Airports:USA, which constantly reviews airline trends - in this case, the potential entry of Southwest into the Tucson market. No other forecast source does this.
- Airports:USA was alone in accurately predicting the closures of hubs at RDU, SJC, and BNA. The FAA forecasts were ignorant of these events for at least a year after they took place, with ridiculous traffic projections based on hub operations that no longer existed.
- Airports:USA accurately predicted the constriction in regional air service that would result from Denver's new and expensive airport. The FAA and others differed. But today our forecast has proven accurate. We do not deal in political correctness, and we don't blindly follow data and information published by government entities.
- Airports:USA long-term forecasts, both for specific airports and for the nation as a whole, have proven more accurate than any others. Back in 1992, when the FAA was playing Chicken Little by projecting that by year 2000, there would be 1 billion US enplanements, Airports:USA was more accurate in projecting well under 700 million, more than a 30% variance. Our forecasts were right. FAA's were wrong. Today, the FAA's stellar forecasting methodology is predicting that the elusive billion enplanement mark will be reached in 2015.
- Airports:USA accurately predicted the traffic spikes at BWI, well before Southwest entered that market - the result of trends not seen by traditional forecast methodologies.
- Airports:USA accurately predicted the entry of Southwest Airlines at airports such as PVD, allowing subscribers to plan accordingly for the strong traffic jump that has since occurred.
Advantage: Forecast Methodologies For The 21st Century
Airports:USA is the product of extensive bottom-up analyses of the air traffic market at 145 airports across the nation. These include the 23 true connecting hubsite airports, 24 large non-hubsite airports, and of 123 regional airports. These 146 airports account for over 95% of all US enplanements, making Airports:USA the most comprehensive document of its type available anywhere.
Published since 1992, Airports:USA is not like FAA forecasts.
We focus on our independent analyses of traffic and airline dynamics. We are not concerned with, nor do we give much credence to, "consensus" forecasts. Such are not really forecasts, but instead are committee-like compendiums that are designed to assure that responsibility is shared, should the projections not pan out.
We understand that a forecast is a projection, not a guarantee. We understand that the factors on which any forecast is based can change, and the assumptions used can shift as well. At The Boyd Group, we accept these realities, and express them clearly.
Airports:USA is more than forecasts and trend analyses for US traffic. It is intended to be an intellectual tool which gives subscribers new insights they can use to develop their own perceptions of the future.
Advantage: Forecasts Updated Throughout The Year
You need current planning data and up-to-the-minute forecasts. Airports:USA delivers.
In aviation, things change rapidly. So, too, must forecasts. Waiting months for next FAA set of passenger projections can leave one in the dark. And even when they're issued, they often entirely miss key shifts in the enplanement picture.
When Southwest announced service into Pittsburgh, the Airports:USA forecast was immediately updated, based on known and projected shifts in capacity and in fare stimulation in key PIT markets, not to mention the outcomes of competitive responses. We also anticipate shifts in air service at key airports, and these are included in Airports:USA.
Advantage: Forecast Summaries & Narratives
Like all work of The Boyd Group, Airports:USA is direct, to the point, and devoid of any political correctness. The clients we work with want the straight facts, not advocacy studies. We are not afraid to make predictions based on known and expected shifts in airline industry trends. After all, over the past twenty years, The Boyd Group has earned an unrivaled track record in accurately forecasting emerging aviation dynamics.
The Forecast Summaries & Narratives contained in Airports:USA reflect this approach, so you get direct, clear, and unambiguous forecast data. We state our assumptions openly, and illuminate where the weak spots and vulnerabilities in them may be. We let our subscribers know where they need to watch for shifts in trends and dynamics that could materially alter the current forecast conclusions in Airports:USA.
Other consultants generally shy away from making predictions that run counter to ambient thinking, or which are at variance with FAA or DOT findings. At The Boyd Group, the only thing we shy away from is the intellectual mediocrity of being afraid to break from the crowd. The nice thing is that there are plenty of aviation-related clients who agree with this approach.
Advantage: Summary Tables Galore
Airports:USA includes summary tables that rank airports within a range of categories:
Fastest Growth Airports
Rankings By Enplanements - Start of Forecast & End of Forecast
Hubsites By Alphabet, By Enplanements, By Growth Rank
Large Non-hubsites by Alphabet, By Enplanements, By Growth Rank
Non-Hubsite Airports - By Alphabet, By Enplanements, By Growth Rank... And more.
Keep in mind that Airports:USA is continuously updated. Individual airports and the alphabetical listings are revised immediately. The summary ranking tables are revised and updated at the start of each quarter. You have the best, most current airport forecasts available anywhere.
Advantage: A Clear Understanding of The System
The air transportation industry changes literally daily, along with many of the dynamics and drivers that cause enplanements to increase or decline at specific airports.
Airport traffic is the result of a confluence of dynamics - airline strategies, pricing issues, competition, changes in fleet mixes, shifts in demographics, and entry or exit of key industries in specific regions. The traffic results of many of these dynamics cannot be projected by static mathematical models. Nor can they be reliably predicted by historical traffic patterns.
That's where FAA forecasts fail miserably - they are based on a methodology that assumes that the airline industry of the 1950s is still in place. They are based on methodologies that still assume - incorrectly - that air traffic is the natural and easily-projected result of population and economic changes. They assume that traffic growth results from such factors alone. The concepts of fare stimulation, capacity suppression, and airport-specific airline strategies are entirely foreign to the FAA's approach to forecasting. And that's why, at best, FAA airport forecasts are a reflection of the past, not a projection of the future.
FAA Forecasts are inaccurate because they mis-characterize and mis-forecast the industry. Some examples:
- The FAA still makes a forecast distinction between major airlines and "regional/commuter" carriers. The fact is that there are very few independent "regional" airlines left.
Today, the use of the word "regional" simply no longer applies to either these entities, nor to the small jets most of them operate. These "regional airlines" don't have their own route systems, and in most cases, passengers cannot even book a seat on them. The fact is that these "regional airlines" are neither regional nor airlines. They are now essentially companies that lease airplanes and crews to major airlines, who then use the lift as their own. Breaking out a separate forecast for these entities is ridiculous, because they simply do not have any definable route systems.
- The FAA still relies on categorizing airports as large hubs, medium hubs, small hubs, and non-hubs. Hub implies connectivity. Maybe in 1959 this made some sense, as airlines did interline with each other. But today, such classifications are entirely inaccurate and out-moded. Identifying, for example, Charleston WV as a "small hub" is nonsensical.
These are typical of the outdated approach the FAA relies upon. Airports and aviation entities planning for the future need forecasts that are predicated on the current and future structures that will drive traffic demand. This is why airports and aviation-related companies rely on Airports:USA for real-world forecasts.
Take a look at the Airports:USA Gateway by clicking here.
Order Now, by clicking here. Or give us a call at (303) 674-2000.
All data and information on this site is (C) Copyright 1992 - 2007, The Boyd Group/ASRC, Inc., and cannot be copied or reproduced in any manner without the express written consent of The Boyd Group/ASRC, Inc.
Airports:USA is a vigorously-defended trademark of The Boyd Group, Inc.
